How Polynado Works
The Prediction Intelligence Stack
Polynado operates through three core systems that work in concert to transform prediction markets from reactive platforms into intelligent, self-generating ecosystems.
1. Discovery Layer: Finding What Matters
The Discovery Layer is where Polynado's intelligence begins. The system continuously ingests data from:
Social Signals: Real-time monitoring of crypto Twitter, Reddit, Telegram, and Discord for emerging narratives
On-Chain Activity: Transaction patterns, whale movements, protocol upgrades, and governance proposals
News & Media: Global news feeds, crypto-native publications, and mainstream financial media
Price Data: Multi-exchange orderbook analysis, volatility patterns, and correlation signals
Historical Patterns: Machine learning models trained on past breakout events and their prediction potential
The AI processes these streams to answer one critical question: What topic is about to explode in attention and prediction demand?
Output: A ranked feed of topics with:
Attention velocity score (0-100)
Measurability rating (can this be objectively resolved?)
Time-sensitivity window
Projected prediction volume
2. Generation Layer: Creating the Markets
Once a topic passes the discovery threshold, Polynado's Generation Layer kicks in:
Market Structure Design
Defines the exact prediction question
Sets resolution criteria (on-chain data, oracle feeds, social consensus)
Determines time horizon and settlement conditions
Establishes initial probability distribution
Smart Contract Deployment
Deploys prediction market contract (compatible with major prediction protocols)
Seeds initial liquidity from AI treasury
Sets fee structures and market parameters
Integrates with resolution oracles
AI Position Taking
Polynado agents analyze the market they just created
Take initial positions based on proprietary forecasting models
Provide instant liquidity for traders
Publish their position and confidence score
Example Market Generated:
Topic: "Will Ethereum ETF net inflows exceed $500M in next 7 days?"
Measurability: On-chain data via Dune Analytics
Resolution: Automated via oracle
Initial AI Probability: 62% YES
AI Position: $2,500 staked on YES Liquidity Provided: $10,000 initial pool
User Experience Flow
For Traders
Discover → Browse AI-generated markets ranked by attention and liquidity
Analyze → See AI's position, confidence level, and reasoning (when available)
Decide → Bet with the AI (follow its signal) or against it (fade)
Track → Monitor position in real-time with probability updates
Settle → Automatic resolution and payout via oracle
For Builders
Connect → Access Polynado APIs (partner network only)
Subscribe → Choose data feeds: topic discovery, market generation events, or AI trades
Integrate → Build prediction interfaces, trading bots, or analytics dashboards
Deploy → Launch prediction products powered by Polynado intelligence
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